IS CLEVELAND BIGGER (AND POORER) THAN THE CENSUS SAYS? Plain Dealer article this morning:
The nation's poorest big city has more people - and they have more money to spend - than official figures suggest, according to a study to be released next week.The story goes on to say that Mark Salling, Cleveland's demographics guru, doesn't think much of the new study, and the idea that the Census missed 100,000 people does seem pretty bizarre.
The study concludes that Cleveland's collective buying power is greater than previous research indicates and that the city is an untapped market for retailers. "It shows there are disposable dollars in Cleveland neighborhoods that can support businesses and retail," said Daryl Rush, the city's community development director.
The study was done by Social Compact, a Maryland-based nonprofit that tries to show the hidden buying power in urban areas. It studies utility bills, credit reports, auto registrations and other sources to compile population and income estimates.
The group's findings, when compared with official census data, are then distributed to retailers to encourage them to invest in urban areas.
Among its key findings about Cleveland:
The city's population is much larger than official estimates, which claim 461,000 people lived here last year. Social Compact's study claims Cleveland's population is actually 588,000 - nearly a 29 percent difference.
Overall income in Cleveland is much higher than estimated - $7.6 billion, instead of the 2000 census estimate of $6.4 billion.
There is an unreported $828 million cash economy in Cleveland that is not factored into the city's collective buying power.
But there's another problem with the story's upbeat spin, if the numbers are quoted correctly -- it says the study shows we're even poorer than we thought!
Do the math: $7.6 billion in income split among 588,000 residents equals per capita income of $12,935. That's $1,200 less than Cleveland's per capita income as reported by the 2000 Census ($14,291). It's $1,100 less than our average 2003 income of $14,188, as reported by the recent American Community Survey -- the one that made us officially "the nation's poorest big city".
Hmmm... a study that finds that Cleveland residents make even less money, on average, than the Census told us. This is good news?